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The Last Two Months — where are we heading to ?

November 9, 2008


Hi Smile,

How does it all begin, I mean a road to disaster, a sudden collapse — the whole system just starts to shake ,slowly and slowly it fall ill as if it is attacked by some deadly virus and then just collapses , like some ordinary human. It is attacked and destroyed financially , like its blood  drained out of the body, then politically it is destabilised  , then comes the social and moral decay of the system. This is what I think they call as  Meltdown– The penultimate stage to Death. Since it is happening all over the the world it is called the Global Meltdown — the terminology used all over the world.

First the American markets collapses , then the European markets and finally the Asian markets collapse. In just few days the whole world is struck by the disease. The global meltdown became the most talked about word in the lexicon — for last two months. The American elections being the second , The terrorists attacks on Indian cities and the  attacks on north Indians in Maharashtra led by Raj Thakarey away and MNS activists in India.The media people had an hectic time covering all these events.

The Global Meltdown


Today's Cartoon

It was always known that the American economy was in downturn followed the European economy.The Bankruptcy of lehman brothers , then the Freddie and Fannie Mac ,Bear sterns, A.I.G. all falling the same way and then the huge losses by other companies in Wall street led to the scare of the common Investors. Same thing happened in european market also.The wall street was all but gone like the twin towers in 1991. The govt. intervened in US by bailing out 800 Billion dollars of tax payers money.Similar steps were taken by other governments.It was like world war three. It had a mild effect only.The similar actions followed in Europe also by respective govt. The Russian closed their market fearing further downturn.Daily statements by Political leaders and financial leaders to reassure the public. It became a burning issue in the Presidential election. For the first time both the candidates came together and made a joint statement to reassure the voters , their will to fight the recession. This displays the gravity of  the situation.The president elect Barrack Obama made a statement showing his will to fight the recession in his first presidential speech after victory.

The pain was felt the most in Asian Markets .. Japan’s economy is shrinking and China and South Korea this week reported unexpectedly slower growth. India, the region’s third-largest economy, has cut its growth outlook.

The gloom from the West fully enveloped the region, from Sydney to Karachi, the commercial capital of Pakistan, which is poised to be the first Asian economy to be put under the International Monetary Fund’s tutelage in the crisis.

The global meltdown has wiped out more than US$30 trillion from the value of stocks and, as investors fled emerging markets, Asian currencies and stocks took a severe belting.Japan’s Nikkei 225 index was down nearly 10% last week, capping a week of losses as the world’s No 2 economy continued to stall. Hong Kong was down by a similar margin, Mumbai plunged 11% and Singapore’s market shed 8.65%.

The Inflation rate has increased to 11-12 % in both the  Asian Giants India and China , the slowdown in economy is visible despite positive comments being made by govt. In case of India it has been reduced by 1 to 2 % to 6– 6.5% P.a. Indian share market has been reduced to half — from 21000 pts to 10000 pts in one year in BSE. All its foreign investments in the capital market has been taken back by the foreign investors , the Tata — Nano and and W.Bengal govt. controversy further strengthened their fears.The BSE has become the worst performer in ASIA this year, reducing its equity to half. The losses has been suffered by top companies like reliance and bharti. The  layoff of employees by Air India and jet airways , the depreciation of the rupee against dollar by 25% ,The pumping of money in the market by govt. ,the lowering of interest rates by banks  all  these are indicators to the downturn of economy. The promises and assurances of the govt are falling flat on face of the fact.

Call it the week that the impact of the global liquidity crisis began to tear fully into Asia’s economies.Tai Lin Radio Services, Hong Kong’s third-largest electronics retail chain, filed for bankruptcy, closing its doors after 62 years of doing business there. Across town, clothing chain U-Right International was put into provisional liquidation.

Dozens of factories in China, the manufacturing centre for the world, are closing.Clement Chen, chairman of the Federation of Hong Kong Industries, said as much as a quarter of the 70,000 factories in China owned by Hong Kong businessmen could close over the next three months.


The American Elections

One of the longest run and most talked about elections in the American history after 1960’s. The first Black candidate and then his victory in the presidential election against the republican nominee John – Mcain is a historical benchmark in America.

The first black president in white house shows the change in the mentality of American public  and is a welcome sign to rest of the world.One of the noteworthy feature was that his democrat rival was a lady candidate , Hillary Clinton . Had she won the contest  and the presidential election , she would have been the first woman president in American history.




The terrorist attacks in Indian cities and attacks on north Indians in Maharashtra.

India has always been a soft state for terrorists. Last two years , there has been terrorist attacks on almost every major city in India. From Mumbai, Bangalore ,Ahemedabad, Delhi,Gawhati to name a few cities that were struck by terrorists violence leading to loss of lives .

If Bal Thakarey started the anti south Indian movement in 1950’s and became the most powerful man in Maharashtra as shiv sena leader , then his nephew Raj Thakarey started the anti north Indian movement to launch himself as the guardian of maharashtra and its leader. The issues remain the same — providing employment to marathi peaple, making marathi language compulsary, reducing immigrants in mumbai and so on.

 Indian odyssey to moon– Chandrayaan 1

India has successfully launched its unmanned space satellite to moon – it is the Fourth country to so. It is second success after the successful delivery of 10 satellites to their respective orbits by I.S.R.O. — Indian Space agency.




                               Thank you and Good – Day

                                       Anurag Dubey

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